Five months have passed in 2016 already, the price of the steel market is more fluctuating than before and most of the times the price has big changes in just one day, market experts are getting more and more vague about the future trends, most of us say we can't predict the future, hereby, we take this chance to investigate the trends of steel future in China.
By analyzing the past 5 months of 2016, from Jan to Apr the price of steel was going up continually, steel profit per ton reach 1000 yuan/ton, the reasons are very confirmed, its because the low storage, low price, and some demands come back, pre-warming with some benefit policy, but at the end of April, this kind of price raising stops intermediately, from 21 April to 16 May, the steel billet price dropped from 2640/ton to 1920/ton, about half of the price rise has been dropped in just one month, people in the market says, price dropping is much quicker than raising.
From the collected data, there are 1/3 steel traders are leaving away from the steel market, with the direct sell mode and electronic business are getting more and more popular, the direct result is the storage is dropping and market adjustment effect is losing.
From the demands of the market, we researched the real estates market, from the newest information of real estates, the newly open construction project is around 434 million square meter, raised 21.4% on the year-on-year basis, from the production of rebar, from Jan to Mar 2011, the production is around 33.55 million, and in 2016, the data is 48 million.
From all of the analyze above, the price rise of steel market is not very rational, it's more like contingency, the real demands is not as much as the data shows, the price may go up a little bit, but it will not be as high as April.